Dive Brief:
- Research by smart remote maker Peel on NFL game audience tune out might be sobering news for some marketers buying expensive fourth quarter ads.
- The research on 17 NFL playoff games found a significant drop off in the number of viewers watching the game from kick off to the fourth quarter.
- Peel estimates that the fourth quarter Super Bowl drop off might be as much as 20 million viewers, especially if the game isn't a close one.
Dive Insight:
Since the game is days away, this research is too late for action this year, but it might be something to keep in mind when planning Super Bowl advertising for next year. Peel Head of Marketing James Ryan also pointed out to Marketing Dive that "the same rules apply to most sporting events, TV shows and movies throughout the year. The audiences are bigger at the start, and decline as the program continues. But this reality does not seem to always be baked into the ad pricing."
The smart remote maker analyzed NFL game viewership of and found a clear trend of audience drop off by the fourth quarter. Taking that trend to the Super Bowl, that drop off has a serious impact on CPM. Super Bowl ad rates are up at $5 million, according to Peel for a CPM of $43.47. Extrapolating Peel’s research into audience drop out, that CPM rises to $52.38 in the fourth quarter. According to Peel, at more than $160,000 per second of ad time, the audience size no longer justifies the costs if so many stop watching the game.
Other findings from the research included women dropped out at a higher rate than men, but only by 2%, and close games settled by final score of less than a touchdown accounted for 4% more viewers remaining tuned in. For Super Bowl Sunday that would mean five million more viewers would stay tuned in through the fourth quarter.