The Marketing Dive Outlook on 2022

The first weeks of 2022 carried an unwelcome sense of deja vu. Major events were canceled, imperiling ad dollars. Overwhelmed hospitals and patchwork pandemic protocols cast a pall over the national mood. Amid the chaos, brand leaders were trying to lock in their agendas for a year that will put emerging technologies to the test while navigating talent shortages, supply chain disarray and the final hours for key identifiers.

Marketers must be cognizant that consumers are feeling as ground down as they are. Despite 2021's unfulfilled promises, including a reopening that never took shape, many brands will continue to pin their hopes on something better coming around the bend.

"Pandemic-weary consumers are looking for brands that relate to them within the current world we are living in. They have gone through an incredible couple years full of constant uncertainty and doing less of what they love," Matt Kleinschmit, founder and CEO of Reach3 Insights, said in an email. "Marketers who empathize with this condition while not pandering will build trust, and those that craft inclusive, inspiring and distinctive experiences will remind consumers of the world they aspire to have back."

Bumpy transitions will rock the industry in 2022. Social media heavyweights will reckon with the performance hit delivered by Apple's tracking changes, while digital marketers will wrestle with anxieties tied to the unknown cookieless future. Looking elsewhere for revenue, platforms will champion shopping capabilities that Accenture now estimates could create a $1.2 trillion social commerce market by 2025. These experiments will be marked by trial and error, as will continued gambles on tactics like nonfungible tokens (NFTs).

Below, Marketing Dive breaks down the nine trends that will stay top of mind for marketers even as other factors remain in flux. This piece can serve as a guide for what's setting the pace in marketing and media in the hectic months ahead.

Temperature check on the consumer

Nearing two years living under COVID-19, consumers are still mired in exhaustion and confusion. The roller coaster between hope and pandemic setbacks like the omicron variant has generated a weary sense of independence marketers should note as more people take risks in the chase for normalcy.

"Consumers are more likely to be open to change and will have shifting expectations, and they will also go into [this] year with a self-reliant mindset, knowing that they need to always be prepared for anything," Rachel Dalton, director of e-commerce and omnichannel insights at Kantar Consulting, said in an email.

Gone are the days of solely addressing pandemic realities, but building a message around practical solutions could resonate. A recent report from the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) found four times as many consumers prefer efficiency in ads versus those who value campaigns that are "fun." In turn, brands that are able to emphasize tangible value may win out versus those that can't make a connection between their products and creative. Campaigns at the same time must be adaptive to swings in the public mood, including through a more diverse media playbook.

"There's an expectation, and more importantly, an opportunity for brands to be able to respond in real time to consumers right now," said Mark Figliulo, founder and creative chairman of the agency Fig. "It's a little bit more utilitarian."

Reality crashes down on the metaverse

The metaverse became inescapable in 2021, with lofty promises and platform reinventions around wedding the real world with the virtual. In 2022, brand applications will be clunky, but could produce learnings for if and when the tech frontier realizes its potential.

Some companies, following Nike's lead, will make acquisitions that lean into existing strengths that easily translate to digital realms. More won't have their priorities in order during a messy land grab on a space few have a technological grasp on, let alone a distinctive pitch.

"Lots of brands will go into web3 to try and capture some value from a first mover advantage, but many of these experiences will miss the mark when it comes to the new value exchange of the metaverse," Mark Lainas, president of Canvas United, wrote over email.

Recent metaverse activations have seen paltry viewership, while economic components like NFTs are sparking thorny discussions around brand safety. Given that marketers are still grappling with the internet 2.0, the concept of an all-purpose virtual utopia remains just that — a concept, and one with substantial unanswered questions regarding governance.

"The more you think about it, the more it seems like we have a long way to go before we're out of the Wild West phase," said Andrew Frank, vice president analyst at Gartner. "There's a lot of future shock developments that feel like they're coming down the pike faster than we can think through all the implications."

The cookieless future is coming, but don't expect a magic bullet

With Google delaying the phaseout of third-party cookies to 2023, the coming months are expected to be crucial for the industry as advertisers, ad-tech providers and publishers implement new tactics that allow for tracking consumers and targeting ads. But even if Google sticks with its current timeline, the shape of a cookieless future is likely to crystallize gradually and incrementally.

"People only change when they're forced to," said Greg Sterling, vice president of market insight at location marketing platform Uberall. "They'll ride the cookie bus as long as they can, even as they test out these alternatives."

Many questions remain, including where the tech giant will come down on solutions like identity resolution and fingerprinting as workable solutions. Plus, advertisers and regulators will continue to work to satisfy consumers who demand both increased personalization but are wary of intrusive data-mining and targeting.

As players in the ecosystem seek to drive value for both brands and publishers, the result could be a mix of identity resolution, first-party data, contextual targeting and the use of data clean rooms — but not one perfect solution, according to Alicia Arnold, managing director at You & Mr Jones data company Fifty-five.

"There is a big sense of urgency: everybody wants to move forward and do something," she said. "As far as how quickly people are moving forward, that varies."

Consumer appetite drives wave of short-form video

Social media has captured consumer eyeballs for years, underpinning marketers' push to invest in platforms like Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. This year is no different, with social media ad spending forecast to reach $177 billion — blowing past TV — while digital channels overall are set to exceed 60% of global ad spend for the first time, per Zenith.

Although Facebook continues to dominate as the world's No. 1 social network with 2.9 billion monthly active users, marketers are shifting away from the big blue app to focus on buzzy short-form platforms like TikTok and Instagram Reels.

"TikTok will take Facebook's place as the proverbial social media punching bag as [it] struggles to scale and successfully moderate the unending surfeit of new content," said Matt Maher, founder of M7 Innovations.

The explosion of TikTok, wider adoption of Reels and debut of YouTube Shorts marked 2021 as the year of short-form video and even shorter attention spans. Consumer appetite is pushing snappy, entertaining video as an increasingly core component of brands' social strategy. But the flood of fresh content on newer sites won't come without challenges.

"TikTok has become a potent, performative trend universe where creators all jockey to build as much 'algorithmic equity' they can to achieve the most eyeballs on their content," Maher said. "With the massive influx of new content from a digitally savvy and culture creating audience, TikTok will be unable to fully understand or handle content moderation at that scale and will continually play a reactive, losing game of cat and mouse with bad actors on the platform."

Small-time stars make inroads with brand deals

Like in the latter half of 2020, a convergence of pandemic-related effects shifted the role celebrities and influencers played in their 2021 brand partnerships. Influencer marketing continued to swell last year as brands tapped both big- and small-name stars, but microinfluencers are forecast to pull ahead and drive industry growth in 2022, Kantar and eMarketer predict.

As a top choice for brand collaboration due to their focused, yet small, audiences drumming up strong ROI, microinfluencers comprised 91% of engagement across all sponsored posts last year, Kantar found. That trend is set to continue into 2022 despite big name brands like McDonald's and Burger King drawing attention to celebrity-studded collaborations.

"The celebrity culture has expanded with influencer marketing, an industry that continues to evolve exponentially. This is of course different because the influencer owns the content creation of the ad," said Kantar's Global Knowledge Manager Polly Wyn Jones.

While Instagram remains the reigning platform for influencer marketing overall, TikTok is drawing the attention of lesser-known creators as brands explore how the buzzy social video app fits into their strategy. Look no further than Charli D'Amelio, who two years ago skyrocketed from typical TikTok creator posting choreographed dance videos to running a multimillion-dollar empire that includes media partnerships and brand deals with marketers like Dunkin' and Hollister.

"With the broadening definition of the word celebrity, we will see inspired and more unusual brand partnerships, like the recent two-way partnership where Billie Eilish launches her new music tracks within ads for the car maker Dodge," Jones said. "We are likely to see further franchise partnerships such as David Beckham fragrances, or even celebrities buying stakes in the brand they endorse such as Ryan Reynolds and Aviation Gin."

Creative campaigns will convey brands' soul-searching

With marketers preparing for a cookieless future, some are taking the opportunity to revisit the basics in both a tactical and creative sense. Brands from Gap and Target to Hulu in recent months have repositioned their marketing approach to focus more on brand value than pizzaz, deploying fresh creative campaigns conveying simple concepts like community and joy.

In an increasingly noisy landscape, one creative strategy is to forgo overpromising in advertisements and instead do some soul-searching to establish a marketing message that communicates a brand's core value.

"Being aggressively targeted won't give the best response. No one wants to feel like they're being sold to, even though realistically, we know we are," Michael Kalli, managing director at Ello Media, said in emailed comments.

The latest holiday season saw several marketers key into straightforward themes of togetherness in an attempt to authentically engage people around a time of year typically dogged by a focus on gifts and consumerism. Starbucks and Target put inclusion and community at the center of their efforts, suggesting how brands may continue emphasizing human-centric campaigns as 2022 marketing plans get underway.

"Customers want to see empathetic, human communication from brands, which slowly over time builds trust. A softer marketing approach that focuses on human centricity is the only way forward," Kalli said.

Investments in retail media, livestreaming could have different payoffs

In 2022, marketers will continue to face a new ecosystem of brand development and brand choice, as brick-and-mortar sales decline and new brands and products emerge, according to Randall Rothenberg, executive chair of the IAB.

"These new brands are creating direct communication channels and great affinities for the next generation of shoppers," he said. "There are more marketing and communications techniques that are available that are far more favored by younger consumers."

A benefactor of this changing landscape could be livestream shopping. However, despite sunny forecasts and investments from major players like Walmart, livestreaming may not yield results for brands, per Phillip Jackson, chief commerce officer at customer experience agency Rightpoint.

"Brands communicating to a mass audience via a live shopping stream is not a thing that will happen in 2022," he said, noting that the associated cost and how platforms like Instagram compensate creators for livestreams is skewing perceptions of the format.

To perhaps drive more meaningful engagement, brands are expected to embrace retail media ads in 2022, but not all investments are created equal: 47% of big brands said they're partnering with retail media networks because they're required to due to retailer partnerships, with only 29% of DTCs having the same requirement, per the IAB 2022 Brand Disruption Report.

"The large national retailers have more leverage to demand retail media network investments from the large brands than they do over the small brands," IAB's Rothenberg said.

Brands will continue drinking from the fountain of youth culture

In 2021, brands tackled the growing imperative to get closer to culture in a variety of ways: CPGs reimagined their campaigns for younger audiences, while QSRs shook up executive and agency roles. At the end of the year, United Talent Agency acquired MediaLink, a strategic advisory firm whose focus includes marketing transformation, in a deal that demonstrates the shrinking divide between marketing and entertainment.

"We've built our advisory practice in the past five years based on this simple premise of brands going direct to the source," David Anderson, managing director of UTA Entertainment & Culture Marketing Division of MediaLink, said in emailed comments. "The rules of how brands show up are rapidly evolving and it represents a significant opportunity for marketers to develop a far deeper presence in both emerging and longstanding pillars of culture."

In 2022, brands and agencies could continue to look at culture as a source for leadership, integration and possible M&A opportunities as marketers seek to engage consumers — especially younger generations that are increasingly difficult to reach through traditional channels.

"We're going through a pretty significant demographic and technological shift that people have been talking about as an abstract for a long time," said Rob Holland, CEO of consumer research platform Feedback Loop. "We've seen it coming like a glacier… now it's moving into more of a tidal wave, where we're hitting a bunch of inflection points."

Agencies reckon with talent crisis

By most financial measures, 2021 was a good one for agencies. Holding companies rode a stunning ad market rebound to stronger results than they saw pre-pandemic. Players of all sizes benefitted from client demand in areas from e-commerce to brand transformation. But agencies, long notorious for burnout, are just as subject to the Great Resignation as any other sector — and maybe even more so.

"Talent is the biggest issue our industry is facing," Fig's Figliulo said. "It is forcing agencies to be more distinctive."

Attrition could be addressed in several ways. "Acqui-hiring" might become more common as the dealmaking market maintains its hot streak. Radically reimagining perks could also be necessary. Publicis Groupe is introducing a program that lets staff work from any region where the network has a footprint for up to six weeks.

Failing to promote such flexibility, including around geography, could affect recent hard-won account gains and a leg up on management consultancy disrupters that have more historical specialties in talent integration. It's easy for agency leadership to consider talent as a large numbers game, but the health of client ties sometimes rests on the individual.

"At the end of the day, something as relatively small in the grand scheme of things like an account director leaving can have a significant negative impact on that relationship," said Jay Wilson, vice president analyst at Gartner.

Whatever shadow the omicron variant cast over the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), one area clearly generated hype: The chance to show off what's new when it comes to electric vehicles (EVs). The sprawling Las Vegas gathering, typically centered on the tech world, drew exhibitors spanning General Motors, BMW, Hyundai, Stellantis and Daimler. Some of them, like General Motors, shifted to a virtual format due to COVID-19, but the announcements remained substantial. Mercedes Benz revealed a sporty Vision EQXX concept car focused on long-range travel, while General Motors' Chevrolet brand showcased an electric iteration of its Silverado pickup.

A CES agenda loaded with EV presentations speaks to broader industry efforts to close the gap with Tesla, which wields an impressive head start and has reset consumer expectations around sustainable offerings despite minimal traditional marketing. After years of playing catch-up, legacy original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) now see an opportunity to put themselves on the leading edge of the industry at a time when the mass appeal of EVs is nearing an inflection point. Actually meeting the opportunity in the quickly evolving EV space could require some outside-the-box marketing to navigate, including rolls of the dice in the metaverse.

"Not a single OEM that I talk to says, 'We want to match what's in the market,'" said Brian Irwin, Accenture North America's managing director of automotive and mobility leader. "Everybody wants to leapfrog. They're being much more aggressive in EVs and they have expectations of market leadership in and of themselves.

"It is a space that is getting increasingly additive," Irwin said.

EV marketing is generally expected to become more aggressive in 2022 following a plethora of launch announcements and corporate brand refreshes last year. Consumer excitement is clear as the segment expands to encompass more popular makes and models like pickups. With greater diversity comes a chance for auto's old guard to message around qualities that upstarts have less of a stake in, including value and rich brand heritage.

"We're in an era of foundational communications in this space," said Mat Zucker, a senior partner at brand transformation consultancy Prophet. "The conversation is going to be around further kinds of differentiation. I think performance will be redefined and broadened."

Rounding a corner

Current bullishness around EVs follows a series of false starts for the segment. Adoption remained sluggish throughout the 2010s as fuel-economy standards for internal combustion engines improved and cost created persistent barriers to entry for many consumers.

A changing of the political guard and the stark realities of climate change could be creating a groundswell of support. Consumer interest in EVs has tripled since 2018, according to Ipsos data, an upward trend girded by increased consumer familiarity and greater choice.

In a study released in September, Accenture found that nearly two-thirds of consumers now describe themselves as "sustainability-minded drivers," making environmental considerations a primary concern. The research surveyed 8,500 respondents in the U.S., China and eight countries in Europe.

"We saw another sea tide of sentiment shift [in 2021] when the new administration promoted their agenda, which was much more environmentally focused than we've seen previously, and all of the issues that we as a society deal with around the environment start to play out a little bit more," Accenture's Irwin said. "That's where I think there's been a cascading of similar positive sentiment."

Economics is still an area for OEMs to address, but the sustainable premium isn't viewed as the big hurdle it once was. Among the sustainability-minded driver group Accenture identified, 30% were willing to pay between 1%-5% more for a more sustainable vehicle, while more than 60% were willing to pay at least 6% more. The findings speak to how the appeal of EVs has broken out of a niche that was once narrowly based around early movers mostly invested in acquiring the shiniest, newest tech.

"When you targeted the first adopters, it was a very green-focused message, it was a very tech-savvy message," said Lindsay Murtagh, chief client officer at PHD, an agency that is part of Omnicom Group. "It's evolved, and depending on who you're targeting will determine what the creative decides to message to them."

Thinking beyond green

If the argument for automakers hitting the gas on EVs in 2022 is partially motivated by existential climate questions, consumers shouldn't expect to see that mandate reflected in marketing. Tackling touchy social topics has become common for brands in recent years, but presents a risk for car companies that are feeling greater pressure to spur adoption of EVs than notch social media accolades.

"If you look at the various brands pushing electric vehicles, sustainability isn't necessarily an above-the-fold message," said David Yang, director of innovation consulting at R/GA.

The Ford F-150 Lightning serves as a potential case study. Pickups tend to position themselves around utility, and the vehicle's product page dedicates plenty of real estate to describing functions such as a Phone As A Key feature and Ford's Intelligent Backup Power options. Ford had to halt reservations on the model at 200,000 in December due to manufacturing concerns.

Prioritizing function will likely be a common theme as OEMs emphasize qualities like driving range to a skeptical public that's not yet accustomed to how EVs work. At least in the short term, auto marketing may not undergo radical changes in the same way that other categories like packaged goods have in the purpose-driven era of brand-building.

"This sensitivity by the brands to play to their audiences and intended customers is a very shrewd and smart one," Yang said. "Brands are treading lightly and rightly for their customers so as not to alienate them."

That's not to say no EV brands will fly the sustainability banner. Rivian, a startup that Ford retains a stake in despite a joint deal to develop EVs recently falling through, shares a lofty message on its homepage — "Preserving the natural world. Forever." — accompanied by crisp photography of mist-covered mountains. More companies will also likely tout their green bona fides to shareholders as sustainability becomes a more significant means of securing investments.

Still, campaigns highlighting price, performance and availability will lead the pack for more mass-market brands, along with efforts that lean into heritage through electrified versions of well-loved models.

"A story around value … that's traditional OEMs bread and butter," Yang said. "There's a lot of strength and equity there that they can tap into."

Obstacles ahead

Price and brand equity will also be important wedges in the race against Tesla, which has rolled out cheaper options like the Model 3 but largely remains a premium brand.

The company does no traditional advertising, nor does it have a public relations department. Its lead is instead fueled by word-of-mouth and the fervent online following behind founder and CEO Elon Musk — advantages that older OEMs without a foot in the startup world will struggle to replicate.

"It's very hard to have a conversation about EVs presently without thinking about Tesla's outsized impact," Yang said. "While brands might not be acknowledging Tesla directly, they are certainly thinking about them behind closed doors."

In the absence of chief executives that inspire such cultish devotion, legacy automakers have household brand names to lean on. Along with the F-150, familiar faces receiving EV makeovers include Mustang and Hummer — hardly lines associated with a positive environmental footprint.

"If I have a plethora of different brands all offering a [battery electric vehicle] powertrain, brand then becomes important as a defining feature," Irwin said. "If everybody's in the market, and we have negated that product offering perspective, brand and all of the things that brand represents then are back on the table."

Another obstacle to legacy automakers' EV momentum stems from the supply chain. Semiconductor shortages remain a pain point across the industry, and failures to fulfill demand could further put off consumers who have long seen EVs as failing to realize their potential.

Even as car lots remain sparse, marketers should think twice before going quiet on EV marketing, experts cautioned. Cadillac, for instance, switched its holiday playbook away from the usual deals and discounts to instead prop up brand-building initiatives behind an all-electric Lyric model slated to hit dealerships in 2022's first quarter. Preorders for the SUV sold out within minutes of going live in the fall.

"What we haven't stopped is the strategic investment," Cadillac CMO Melissa Grady during a talk addressing supply chain challenges at the Advertising Week conference in October 2021.

That's a tack other auto brands should consider if they want to stand out in a field that's primed to only get more competitive. At the same time, companies that do wield the inventory have a chance to raise their profile if competitors can't realize production goals.

"Just because you don't have a specific model in the showroom doesn't mean that you can't advertise your brand and support that," said PHD's Murtagh. "There are always opportunities, so it might not be lower funnel, it's more upper funnel."

New avenues to explore

Another tactic that could see experimentation related to EVs in 2022 is the metaverse, particularly as in-person showings are imperiled by the same COVID-19 fears that shook up CES.  

Hyundai last year established a virtual venue on the gaming platform Roblox that was designed to showcase its mobility and EV products, including the Ioniq 5 all-electric SUV. Roblox is popular with Gen Z and Gen Alpha consumers, making the theme park-like activation — the first of its kind from a global automaker— a clear bid to foster loyalty with the next generation of drivers.

While the metaverse won't become a major line item for auto brands in the near term, it's possible that 2022 will serve to further test the waters and engage a group of up-and-coming buyers more readily familiar with spaces like gaming and who care more about the environment.

"As younger car buyers are jumping in the market, of course EVs will be appealing. Meeting these younger potential customers where they are with respect to channels will be important," Yang said.

"Given that we're not all necessarily engaged in the metaverse at this moment, it will almost be a pragmatic way to experiment with some things so that they've got the right baseline to work with as those things actually take off," he added.

So far in 2022, restaurants are not only still feeling the effects of the pandemic, but are also grappling with labor, supply chain and inflationary issues that affect their marketing. While these pressures are being felt across industries, restaurants also face a set of unique challenges like increased competition from ghost kitchens and third-party platforms that are making it more important than ever to get digital right.

With cost crunches at every corner, brands are looking to merge with or acquire companies that can help them better meet the needs of consumers and the market. For restaurant marketers, 2022 will be a year of increased pressure to deliver results on a variety of chiefly digital fronts, spanning media, ordering and loyalty.

And even for chains that have been able to transition their business throughout the stages of the pandemic, marketing departments have suffered; in some cases, a 50-person department is now down to just a few, according to Robin Blanchette, CEO of Norton, a creative agency focused on the hospitality industry.

"When I look at the landscape in terms of how we market or what we use to market or what levers we pull, I think all of them are still important. It's just at what level and when and why you might be using it," she said.

Getting digital ordering right

Digital ordering is one of the myriad trends accelerated by the pandemic, and it remains top-of-mind for restaurants in 2022. However, it has shifted from a preffered way to order during the first wave of the health crisis to perhaps the only way to stay in business as margins continue to tighten.

"Inflation and labor pressures are very real, and so marketers are going to be asked to really get aggressive about digital ordering," said Dennis Becker, CEO of mobile marketing provider Mobivity. "It's going to become a big priority for marketers."

Both Blanchette and Becker named Domino's as a restaurant chain that is staying on top of the shift to digital ordering. The pizza chain plans to modify its promotions to push digital ordering amid the labor crunch and what CEO Ritch Allison called "unprecedented increases" in food costs, CNBC reported. The chain is also working to drive some business to its own channels and away from third-party delivery services that further impact margins.

Before the pandemic, restaurant marketers had built out mobile apps that focused on loyalty programs. The pandemic-spurred shift to digital ordering proved to be a bigger technological lift than loyalty, and this year could be a time for restaurants to reassess their apps and digital capabilities to determine what's working and how much they're impacting business outcomes. They'll also have to determine if their digital offerings are attractive enough for consumers to download, use and stay engaged with their apps at a time when most people use less than 10 apps a day.

"There are a handful of brands that were doing this before the pandemic and then made out like bandits, like Sonic, Chipotle and Wingstop, that were already all-in on digital," Becker said. "And then, you had a bunch of other brands [that] had to build this airplane as you're flying off a cliff."

The bifurcation between early adopters and brands that rely on an entire industry of technology support is a pre-existing trend that could accelerate this year. While Yum Brands acquired the artificial intelligence (AI) unit of performance marketing firm Kvantum and conversational commerce developer Tictuk Technologies, McDonald's sold AI company Dynamic Yield (which it had acquired in 2019) to Mastercard, signaling that its bet on personalization-through-M&A didn't fully pay off.

Building relationships and getting data

While digital ordering allows restaurants to cut costs and drive sales, it also is tied with another marketer priority with which restaurants face particular challenges: the need for first-party data. As the entire marketing landscape grapples with the loss of mobile identifiers and coming changes to third-party cookies that affect how they target and track ads, restaurant marketers also face a first-party data deficit due to the rise of third-party delivery services.

"The most difficult thing for this industry is owning their own data, because of the surge in third-party delivery over the past couple of years," Blanchette said. "We don't have access to it, and I think that's been a huge downside. I can't market to people if I don't know who they are."

With this in mind, restaurant brands could get more aggressive about not just driving digital orders but acquiring users and building digital relationships that get consumers into first-party databases. As brands across industries work to build and use these databases, affinity marketing could increase as restaurants look to collaborate with platforms that have their own first-party data, especially around growing sectors like gaming.

The first stage of those relationships has already begun in the restaurant world, with Chipotle and McDonald's pursuing branding opportunities on platforms like Twitch and Roblox and with partners like FaZe Clan. Deeper integrations — where consumers could buy a sandwich in a virtual world and redeem at a restaurant — will likely follow, Becker explained.

"The next phase of all of this is earning your loyalty points at McDonald's while you're playing Candy Crush," he hypothesized.

Other pressures and big solutions

Along with pressures that are endemic to the entire economy, traditional restaurant marketers also face continued challenges from off-premise and third-party delivery services that want consumers to have a relationship with a platform and not a brand (Uber Eats wants consumers to buy burgers, not Five Guys burgers, for example).

"Even the bigger chains can't afford to market as much as some of these private-equity backed companies, because they're all trying to buy market share to get their next round of capital," Dan Rowe, CEO of franchise development company Fransmart. "It's a little different playing field."

Restaurant brands still face a sizable challenge in ghost kitchens, facilities that produce food with no customer facing areas that could be a $1 trillion global market by 2030. But the pitch by ghost kitchens at the beginning of the pandemic — that full-service and fast casual restaurants couldn't do off-premise dining well enough — resonates less as marketers like Panera continue to figure out digital and delivery, Rowe explained.

Still, the panoply of pressures — pandemic, labor, supply chain, inflation and third-party delivery — facing restaurants could make M&A more attractive for their parent companies. After seeing major acquisitions like Inspire Brands' $11.3 billion deal for Dunkin' and Restaurant Brands International's $1 billion deal for Firehouse Subs during the last few years, the industry could be at "the tip of the iceberg on consolidation," Mobivity's Becker said, with ramifications for marketers.

"Marketers are going to start thinking a lot more broadly about consumers," he said. "It used to be share-of-stomach, where you're competing against other brands… now that so many of these brands are going to sit under one parent owner, they might want to capitalize on that."

Alone or together, restaurant marketers have full plates in 2022 — an opportunity they might be particularly well-suited for.

"We are born out of waiting tables, washing the floor, making sure your hot food is hot and your cold food cold," Norton's Blanchette said. "As marketers in this industry, that's how folks are approaching us: let's meet the customer where they are, and try to be of service."

Even as the pandemic continues to upend daily life, there is hope that stabilization and normalization could be on the horizon, offering with it a chance for marketers to prepare their brands for a post-pandemic reality.

M&M's, Anheuser-Busch and Coca-Cola recently unveiled brand refreshes that look to the year ahead and beyond. And while each utilized different tactics and highlighted different marketer priorities, a trio of moves by major advertisers of iconic brands could foreshadow other marketers making similar moves in the months ahead.

Brand makeovers took on new importance in 2020 and 2021 as marketers worked to make their brands better fits for a landscape repeatedly altered by the pandemic, with a renewed push for social justice and the changing consumer behaviors caused by both. But while earlier refreshes could have been the result of brands scrambling to manage major pandemic-spurred shifts, the new looks debuting in early 2022 could be seen as more intentional actions by brands, even as they still grapple with issues like disruptions to supply chains.

"They've gotten their feet under themselves a bit and are looking forward," said Karthik Easwar, associate teaching professor at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business. "They're not just trying to play catch up, but actually looking forward."

Despite being timed to the start of the year, as the world desperately awaited the omicron variant wave to crest, these touch ups shouldn't be seen as quick, reactive moves, however. Instead, they are likely the result of thoughtful processes that encompass research, ideation, testing, planning and rollout as marketers look to bolster brands that have faced challenges during the pandemic.

"These might be market realignments or initiatives underway that were either planned or accelerated because of the crises," said Mario Natarelli, managing partner at strategy agency MBLM.

All three major refreshes tackled a range of brand elements, from logos and mascots to typefaces and colors. Anheuser-Busch rendered its "A&Eagle" in a gold that mirrors the color of beer and barley; Coca-Cola modernized and simplified a range of packaging; while M&M's modernized its mascots and put a greater emphasis on the ampersand in its logo. In all three cases, there was extreme attention to clarity and simplicity, Natarelli said.

"All of them are cutting through the clutter and trying to present a very clean, clear, simple, bold face, and whether that's for shelf impact or viewer clarity, there's something there that transcends strategy," he said.

While Coca-Cola's new look seeks to make its growing product line of flavored, zero sugar and coffee-based beverages easier to find as it looks to reach new drinkers during new times of the day, the M&M's and Anheuser-Busch refreshes serve a dual purpose of tying brand ethos to visual identity, tweaking iconic imagery for new audiences and imperatives.

The Anheuser-Busch logo now features the eagle in flight and facing to the right, a change intended to showcase the company as more premium and forward-looking than before, in line with its recently launched new global purpose, "To a Future with More Cheers," that includes a sustainability initiative. Meanwhile, M&M's plan to makeover its candy mascots as a celebration of self-expression centers inclusivity.

Successful brand logos evoke in consumers' minds the brand itself, from the name, to the identity of the company, its products and value propositions, or other emotional or conceptual traits, Easwar explained. For these new logos and mascots to take root, brand touch ups must be paired with tangible efforts that reinforce and communicate brand values — from sustainability to equity and inclusion — to consumers. Simply put, the refresh can't stop at the logo.

"It doesn't happen instantaneously," he said. "You don't turn around an eagle and automatically tell people that you're forward looking."

The M&M's lesson

The M&M's rebrand has received the most attention, from both industry watchers and the online chattering classes, for how parent company Mars has looked to redesign its iconic candy mascots with an eye toward a "more dynamic, progressive world." While decisions to make the orange candy relatable to Gen Z by focusing on the character's anxiety or replacing the green M&M's high-heeled boots with sneakers to "reflect her effortless confidence" quickly became fodder for satire and memes, the balancing act that Mars is attempting — striving for inclusion while selling chocolate candies — provides lessons for other marketers.

"That brand has to resonate with younger audiences and audiences that believe these issues are essential or maybe even more important than older skewing audiences would. I'm sure there's the counterpoint and some backlash they might face, but I think that in their case, they're taking it on because of who their customers are and what they care about," said Natarelli.

For its part, M&M's use of different colors and characters already made the brand "half-pregnant" in embracing an egalitarian purpose, Natarelli said. But again, for the rebrand to be successful, it will take more than lowering the height of an M&M's high heels, Easwar said.

"If it's just one piece in a much larger effort that has some more tangible and practical and functional — maybe it's in hiring practices, maybe it's in other ways that they reach broader markets — if they're making those efforts, then it shouldn't be looked at as just lip service," he said.

Plus, any backlash M&M's receives for a perhaps clumsy connection of inclusion with its mascot makeover should not serve as an example of why brands shouldn't continue putting purpose at the center of their brands. Consumers — especially younger ones — want brands to act, but need the actions to be authentic as they work to add more intimate appeal as part of rebrands, explained Ali Fazal, vice president of marketing at creator management platform Grin.

"People are not upset about the actual movement or the message. They just want it to feel like it's true to the brand," he said. "In order to do that as a brand, you have to make it a part of how you operate — not just a campaign."

Retailers building their own platforms to sell and place ads for marketers is a business firmly in its boom period, with the looming deprecation of third-party cookies and demand for alternatives to digital's old guard fueling a surge in interest. With a proliferation of retail media networks from big names like Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Macy's — and some offerings hitting new levels of maturity — consumer packaged goods marketers are expected to shift to more budgets to platforms that can closely tie advertising messages to the point of sale and tap into a wellspring of first-party data.

Despite that promise, retailers already threaten to repeat some of digital's past mistakes, particularly in regards to ad volume. At the same time, companies with historical specialties in bricks and mortar face pressure to build out complex technical infrastructure on a compressed timeline. The upshot will be a period defined by a surfeit of activity as retailers try to avoid leaving money on the table, and accompanying that gold rush, a lot of trial and error.

"If you think of going online to an e-commerce platform now, the amount of inventory that is sponsored, that is sold, that is advertising has increased significantly," said Emily Turner, head of customer engagement and media, Americas, at Dunnhumby, a data science firm that specializes in the retail category. "There's been, in my opinion, compromises on the customer experience."

Any meaningful shakeout isn't really in the cards in the short term if for no other reason than that the market is so hot. The consultancy Winterberry Group estimates that spending on retail media marketing in the U.S. doubled from $20 billion in 2020 to $40 billion last year. The race to find a proper replacement for cookies, which are expected to be phased out sometime in 2023, will push brands to seek other outlets to reach shoppers, with retail media primed to benefit.

In response, the list of retailers standing up some form of ad network that weds physical and e-commerce shopper data has grown long: Walmart, Target, Kroger, CVS, Best Buy, Home Depot, Lowe's, Macy's and Dollar Tree are among the many vying for a piece of the pie. That's leaving out Amazon — still the model many are following — which itself is realigning its advertising priorities to chase larger brands as ad sales continue to be a top-performing segment, as Insider reported. Services are also quickly evolving to incorporate cutting-edge features like data clean rooms or cloud-based management.

"In the one- to two-year timeframe, this represents such a big opportunity. Right now, they're in the investment portion," said Brian Gioia, director of product strategy at the e-commerce specialist agency Scrum50. "They're not worried about being profitable."

But the question lingers: Will retailers use the windfall wisely? There are plenty of gaps that need to be closed as mastering digital marketing remains a tall order for internet natives, let alone companies with little tech backbone and the need to demonstrate true omnichannel finesse and the much-ballyhooed "closed-loop measurement." The pandemic forcing retailers to jump to e-commerce has clearly demonstrated the pitfalls of falling short on the customer experience end.

"They've had growing pains going from traditional shopper marketing and trade marketing. What was working for them is no longer working for them in the same way," said Turner. "How do you evolve the way that you operate from a traditional trade and shopper marketing business to be a media [business]? That's learning a whole new skill set that they often don't have."

Transitional phase

As retailers make the uneasy transition, solutions providers see an opportunity. Dunnhumby introduced a solution called Dunnhumby Sphere that tries to streamline retail media functions like audience targeting, media booking, forecasting and measurement. The idea is that retail media is too fragmented and carries too much disconnect between platforms and their partners — a familiar story to emergent pockets of digital marketing.

Deeper integrations with tech providers could be in the cards for brands chasing the structure of established advertising heavyweights.

"The rate at which things are evolving, a retailer doesn't really have that much of a chance to wait to build slowly," said Turner. "In that race to go fast, they often need to partner."

Walmart made waves in 2021 when it teamed with The Trade Desk, a leading independent ad-tech firm, to develop its own demand-side platform. Walmart DSP, which went live around the holiday season for select partners, provides access to The Trade Desk's inventory across display, streaming, mobile, audio and connected TV and draws on shopper data from Walmart's website, mobile app and 4,700 brick-and-mortar locations. It serves as a significant test of whether a retailer can scale an ad-tech stack to rival the triopoly of Amazon, Facebook and Google — and may serve as a model for rivals to follow in casting a wider advertising net.

"The Trade Desk is building for them that self-service tool, which is something that a lot of the suppliers are looking for," said Ryan Gibson, vice president of strategy at performance marketing agency Adlucent. "When you're talking about being able to elevate customizations to the supplier, they want that visibility and transparency and ability to control to the extent that they can. That's where The Trade Desk partnership is going to be particularly appealing."

A similar theme animating the category will be the expansion of retail media networks off of a given brand's owned properties. Kroger, the largest grocery chain in the U.S., in 2021 rolled out a private programmatic marketplace through its 84.51° data and analytics unit. With broader reach comes the mandate for retailers to incorporate ad formats that cover more parts of the sales funnel. Richer media placements may help combat feelings of ad fatigue that are starting to degrade the user experience.

"You could look at the way Amazon has evolved their offerings," said Gioia. "You start with some sponsored product listings in search results that are very conversion-focused. You demonstrate some success and then you scale up from there in terms of more brand-building."

The pandemic has shown plenty of old chestnuts finding fresh relevancy on this front. Everything from QR codes to print catalogs has reentered the retail media marketing rotation and could carry newfound utility in an era where convincing customers to fork over their personal info is the top mandate.

Despite the resurfacing of some traditional media, retailers by and large will need help to round out leadership with a squarer focus on digital. Hiring could come from outside the category, from places like tech companies, while marketing services providers might be tapped to assist with integration. Similarly, CPG customers using retail media networks might need to build up some new muscles to deploy campaigns effectively.

"There's a lot of transformational work that needs to happen," said Gioia, who previously worked in management consulting. "I can totally see the Accentures of the world helping build out these new organizations."

Power consolidation

Marketers have long griped about the constraints of working within the walled gardens of the triopoly, but a limited number of platforms does eliminate some of the choice paradox from the equation. Conversely, advertising through Walmart Connect might look markedly different from doing so on Kroger, Macy's or Instacart.

That said, a variety of options might be welcome since different retailers cater to different audiences when it comes to factors like demographics or price points.

"The world of digital media is going to look a lot more diverse than it does today," said Gioia. "If you're a CPG company with different brands, some of your brands will probably overindex at Dollar Tree, others will overindex at Target. Your media plan will reflect that."

CPGs have already voiced concerns that retailers could be propping up new walled gardens even as they promote themselves as averse to the old ones. Though it's an increasingly crowded field, retail media could end up dominated by a select few that have both the physical footprint and digital savvy to match the scale large marketers require.

"Typically in the digital technology world, whenever there's something new happening, there are tons of new businesses popping up. That's not going to happen here because there are huge barriers to entry," said Gioia.

"Unless you spent the last 100 years building lots of Lowe's stores, you can't have a Lowe's retail media network," he added. "The thing that will dictate success is not necessarily who has the best technology or who has the best media offering. It's who has the biggest size."

While reservations persist, it will be hard for CPGs to ignore the pull of retail media. Cookies and other changes to identifiers will weigh heavier on performance and measurement during a period where improving those skills is paramount. And retail media, when based on quality data, ultimately promises something that the murkier areas of the digital world frequently struggle to prove: Someone at the other end is actually searching for something to buy.

"There's not necessarily a lot of trust in the world digital marketing," said Gioia. "At the very least, I trust that people are visiting Kroger's website and visiting Amazon and Walmart's website. I know real people are seeing my ads."

Throughout 2021, industry news was full of headline-grabbing account reviews and consolidations, as blue-chip brands such as Coca-Cola, Facebook/Meta and Unilever shifted billions of dollars in business to new agencies or consolidated accounts at existing roster agencies. As 2022 gets underway, there is no reason to think the pace will slow.

Several big accounts — KFC, AB InBev, Audible, Volkswagen — launched reviews in 2021 that will be wrapped up in 2022. Most obviously, two years of responding to changing consumer priorities — more time at home, shifting personal values and greater use of digital technology — has led marketers to rethink the ways in which they connect with consumers.

"Last year, we had about 15 blockbuster pitches; we should anticipate at least the same number this year," said Jay Pattisall, principal analyst at Forrester.

A changed world

According to a recent Forrester Pulse survey of CMOs, 51% of marketers said they planned to review their digital or experience agencies in the year ahead, and 41% said they would review their media business. Additionally, 44% of CMOs indicated they would move more work in-house.

For some marketers, the changes may simply mean adjusting their media models. For others, it can mean a wholesale change to the business model.

"It's always difficult to forecast," said Tom Browning, president at search consultancy JLB+ Partners. "But one thing we know is the world has changed, and with that change comes a change in the ways companies do business."

As marketers continue to reevaluate their post-pandemic business models in the face of pandemic-related changes, some are realizing they may require more digital engagement and smarter, more efficient use of data. This is likely to lead to roster shakeups, said Michael Goldberg, principal at Rojek Consulting Group.

"The way marketers do business and the demand on their business has changed, and companies need to refresh how their accounts are being serviced," Goldberg said. "Their needs are different now than they were a few years ago, and now it's a question of having the right service to handle those new needs."

Resolving a paradox

Forrester's research indicates many marketers will be tasked with addressing two opposing business problems in 2022: attracting new customers and cutting marketing costs. For many, this has meant pivoting to e-commerce and trying to do more with less.

"[Customer acquisition and cutting costs] are two competing priorities that illustrate the growth vs. cost-reduction paradox facing many CMOs," Pattisall said. "Resolving [that paradox] may have them reevaluating their partnerships."

Marketers also will be looking at how recent business changes might affect their compensation models. For instance, increased remote work could yield lower overhead costs for agencies, which, in turn, could be passed on to clients and free up resources for additional business services.

"Agencies have typically billed approved travel and overhead back to clients," Browning said. "With the lack of a need for more travel, it opens up the possibility for a broader area of partners and intellectual costs."

Beyond the fundamental business changes, traditional contract cycles will account for a fair number of agency reviews in 2022, per Pattisall. Most marketer-agency contracts are between three and five years, he said. Like the U.S. Senate, where a third of its members are up for reelection every two years, the advertising industry can always count on a few large contract renegotiations to spur roster changes.

The ripple effects of the pandemic are likely to reverberate throughout the industry for some time. Even after many of the large, global businesses have reconsolidated their accounts, the lower tier of marketers — those who spend less than $100 million annually — have also rearranged their business priorities and may be looking for a change.

"There's a growing list of companies who are spending $10, $25 or $50 million who are being underserviced by the large media companies," Goldberg said. "They may be looking to shift back to mid-sized agencies."