Is mobility recession-proof?
Brands' curiosity in experimenting with mobile is outweighing any pressure on advertising budgets caused by the current economical recession.
Executives from the mobile advertising industry believe that the financial crisis will not have any short-term effects on mobile, but may be detrimental if the crisis is long-term.
"We asked consumers, given the economic conditions, what areas they would be cutting back on," said Joseph Porus, vice president of Harris Interactive, Oakland, WA. "At the top of the list were eating out in restaurants, buying new electronics, entertainment, clothing and vacations.
"Interestingly, the most bulletproof consumer expenditures were insurance, TV and mobile phone service," Mr. Porus said. "So, sleep easy, mobility - America is not about to cut their mobile phone service."
Harris' recent teen survey presented at CTIA in San Francisco found that about 40 percent of teens would die without their mobile phones.
This is another marker of just how critical mobility has become.
Also from the teen study Harris found that half of teens are interested in mobile advertising.
"Mobility could be recession-proof and be one of the strongest ways of effectively marketing in tough economic times," Mr. Porus said.
Another key observer of the mobile industry agreed with Mr. Porus' analysis.
"I don't see much direct impact on mobile marketing for the near term," said Neil Strother, analyst at JupiterResearch.
Mr. Strother said that a crisis on Wall Street is not good news for anyone in the market. But he believes that most companies will continue their mobile efforts into 2009.
"Mobile is still so early and experimental," Mr. Strother said. "If they already have plans, I don't think it'll hurt too much."
A liquidity crunch is obviously going to result in less investment in startups in mobile marketing.
Venture capitalists are going to be less willing to fund new media companies in a period of turbulence, both due to a real lack of capital or the perceived risk of new media investments.
"They may just want to ride the storm out by protecting their capital and not making what may be seen as risky investment choices," said Michael Wolf, analyst at ABI Research, Oyster Bay, NY.
"Corporations almost always cut back on advertising in downturns and I think this one will be no exception," he said.
"One upside is that mobile marketing may be seen as potentially more effective, meaning its allocation of total advertising spend may be greater given that advertisers may want to use their money more effectively given the economic environment."
This effectiveness can be attributed to the fact that the mobile phone is no longer a luxury for the American consumer - it's a staple of daily life.
As financial markets shift and individuals feel any economic tightening in their own lives, it's unlikely that mobile would be seen as a disposable element of their lives, according to Nic Covey, Chicago-based director of insights at Nielsen Mobile.
"From a mobile content perspective, any reduction in consumer spending further underscores the need for advertising-subsidized mobile content," Mr. Covey said. "A $15 subscription for mobile content is a big pill to swallow, but all the more so as gas tops $4 and home prices decline."
That's not to suggest those who presently subscribe may ditch their services as the economy softens, he said. Mobile data services are like broadband in the home: once you have them, it's very hard to go back.
From a device perspective, sales of the iPhone and comparable devices and the buzz around new devices such as the HTC Dream and BlackBerry Bold suggest that consumers are just as eager to upgrade their devices as ever.
"In fact, mobile device upgrade intention is today the highest it has been in 31 months," Mr. Covey said.
"New device acquisition this summer was softer than last, but our research of upgrade cycles and intent suggests that this holiday season could still be even stronger than 2006 or 2007, in spite of challenges to the economy," he said.