The recession and mobile: a venture capitalist's perspective
While venture capitalists are concerned about the mobile industry overall due to the recession, there are several vertical markets they?re quite optimistic about.
M/C Venture Partners in Boston, which funds telecom startups, feels there are opportunities in mobile broadband, unlimited wireless service offerings, local exchange carrier investments, data center services and network infrastructure plays.
Mobile Marketer's editorial assistant Jordan Crook interviewed Salvatore Tirabassi, a partner at M/C Venture Partners. Here is his perspective on how the recession will ultimately impact telecom companies going into 2010.
What impact will the recession ultimately have on the Telecom industry?
The impact of the recession on the telecom sector is more limited than in other industries.
Consumers and enterprises need to talk and transmit data regardless of the economic environment.
These are vital services that have recession resistance. Furthermore, the use of data is a much stronger requirement across the board and we do not foresee stalling adoption rates as we saw in the last recession.
What impact has it already had?
Where we have seen impact is in churn and adoption of specific services in the telecom industry.
For example, budget pressures at both the consumer and enterprise level have caused downgrading of services or reduction of services.
On the other hand, in the wireless space, "unlimited" carriers such as MetroPCS, MobiPCS, Open Mobile and Revol find that customers needing better value are getting it in their respective unlimited service offerings.
We also expect that the recession will drive more cord-cutting, as consumers reduce the redundant expense of a wireline in favor of a wireless offering.
In the enterprise market, we have seen some shifting and delays in adopting higher bandwidth services, but not as much as one would think.
In fact, bandwidth adoption amongst our high bandwidth services companies in fiber and fixed wireless have continued to grow through the recession, which indicates high value enterprise bandwidth needs are receiving budget priority.
What vertical markets are you optimistic about? Why?
We remain optimistic about fiber services and unlimited wireless services.
We see bandwidth needs increasing in businesses of all kinds and fiber (and fixed wireless) provides a critical, scalable part of the network.
Unlimited wireless continues to bring new-to-wireless and value-conscious users into this segment of the market.
We also like wireless data services and applications, but we are selective because not all data services and applications will have a revenue model that makes sense for investors like us.
How does mobile fit into the Telecom industry's reaction to the recession?
As mentioned above, we think the recession drives reassessment of consumer and enterprise budgets.
On the consumer side, we see cord-cutting in favor of mobile as a key trend that accelerates in tough times.
On the enterprise side, we would expect more diligent management of mobile services, which would eliminate low-value user accounts.
Where does the greatest opportunity lie for mobile marketing?
While we have examined the market closely, we have yet to close any mobile marketing investments.
We feel there are some business models that may make sense, but it is hard to tell at this time. We are trying to identify the end-user mobile experience that best accommodates an acceptable, measurable and valuable form of marketing on the handset.
This may include a mixture of intent-driven advertising (like search) and location-based services, which are both end-user driven.
What makes one Telecom company stand out among the rest?
Management execution, service performance and metrics measurement and improvement.
Adoption of telecom services relies on a myriad of variables, many of which are measurable and require management diligence to drive peak performance.
Operationally, telecom is a service, whether it is mobile marketing, voice, data or a transcontinental fiber connection.
These services rely on a network that may be unreliable for many different reasons. It ultimately becomes an execution, performance, measurement and improvement exercise.
Management teams that have the diligence and dedication to relentlessly perform this exercise will stand out.
Where do you see the future of mobile taking us?
Mobile is a key driver of future consumer and enterprise services.
Ten years ago, I heard a speech from a prominent executive in the wireless space and he showed a wireless adoption chart.
He said that adoption, for as long as he was in wireless (which was as long as anyone had been), always exceeded consensus opinion about where it was ultimately headed.
He added whenever the pundits indicated that ultimate adoption would be X percent, the industry would move past that level.
I bet he would have similar sentiments today about the future of mobile. Now, no industry grows forever, but I believe that the evolution of mobile into data services, the advancement of data networks in general, the availability of new mobile applications and the increasing need information connectivity is driving the next phase of mobile evolution.
This will take us to a place where, eventually, all consumers will be connected to any information they need regardless of their location or economic status.