NEW YORK ? The transition from a publishing industry dominated by print to one driven by digital content is expected between 2014 and 2016, according to a panelist at the Digiday:Apps conference.

Print media has faced considerable setbacks as the Internet subverted advertising revenues. Meanwhile, digital publishing will continue to grow as smartphone and tablet computer market penetration increases.

?The speed of growth is 100-percent driven based on speed to market of new devices,? said Jeanniey Mullen, global executive vice president and chief marketing officer of Zinio and VIVmag, New York. ?Just look at the smartphone and tablet markets.

?By 2013, we?re expecting to 200 million of these devices in people?s hands,? she said. ?Expect the tipping point [for digital publishing] between 2014 and 2016.

?But, I don?t think print?s going away ? it?s going to have a different role than digital.?

The ?Can apps save content publishers?? panel was moderated by Frank Barbieri, chief product officer of Transpera, San Francisco.

The other panelists included Harry Kargman, CEO of Kargo, New York; Kevin Hyson, executive vice president and chief marketing officer of American Media Inc, Boca Raton, FL; and Mike McGraw, managing partner and chief operating officer of Big Fuel, New York.

Market for digital publications
The typical consumer reading digital publications currently has the profile of an early adopter, Ms. Mullen said, based on her experience with the Zinio digital magazine portal.

The market should trend younger as device penetration increases.

?Right now, this is an early-adopter market, and we?re seeing people [who are] 35-44-years-old, college educated, high-household income,? Ms. Mullen said. ?We?re going to see that change quite a bit.

?The 18-23-year-old market is coming in second,? she said. ?The market won?t go older, it will go younger.?

Older mobile users are more likely to subscribe to digital content, while younger users might be more reluctant, the panelists agreed.

For that reason, publishers should look for ways to provide users with a richer experience.

An interactive magazine experience could open the door for more valuable rich media advertising that offers deep engagement.

?The more interactivity that is strategically placed in magazines to supplement content rather than just being bells and whistles, the longer engagement users will have,? Ms. Mullen said. ?People are accessing magazines digitally between eight and 18 times more than print.

?It?s not because the magazine is so great, but because you have it with you,? she said. ?It?s easy to pick up on the train or in a bus and go into the content.

?Someone should go through magazines and repurpose the advertising to the experience.?

Potential digital publishing models
Print media?s business woes have been no secret in recent years.

?Publishers today face a lot of challenges,? American Media?s Mr. Hyson said. ?The cost of subscription acquisition is costly, and not going to go down.

?But I think print is a very vibrant media still,? he said. ?Smaller publications will have more difficulty because they won?t be able to enjoy economies of scale.

?We see the future as being one where there has to be digital migration over a long period of time.?

Mr. Hyson said that publishers looking for a quick and cheap method of monetizing their content on devices such as the iPad should turn to their content archives.

?Magazines have a tremendous amount of archival content they use to drive traffic,? Mr. Hyson said. ?There is tremendous potential for a single-subject digital magazine.?

The executive gave the hypothetical example of Men's Health magazine leveraging its archives to create a digital magazine focused entirely on cardiovascular health.

The publisher would be able to bring in advertisers and monetize that content at minimal costs, Mr. Hyson said.

Such specialized publications  have more potential for driving revenue than the freemium model that some publishers have adopted.

?I?m not a big fan of giving things away and coming back and having people pay for it,? Mr. Hyson said. ?When people get something for free, they aren?t going to pay for it.

?These specialized magazines that you can give away, that?s where you?ll drive ad revenue,? he said.

The American Media executive also cautioned against advertisers flocking to sponsorships for publications on the iPad before consumers had really adopted the technology.

?In terms of metrics, the issue people are going to have is that most magazines are sustained through advertising, not circulation,? Mr. Hyson said. ?When you go to digital, you?re not going to have the install base that will justify a lot of what advertisers will want to pay for.

?There?s a lot of fascination now with advertisers jumping onto iPad apps, jumping into things that have no install base,? he said. ?They?re basically paying a huge amount for the cool factor, but it?s not going to make sense on a CPM basis.

?Once that trend ends, the numbers will get realistic about what the user base will be.?

Final Take
Jeanniey Mullen, global executive vice president and chief marketing officer of Zinio and VIVmag, New York