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FCC white space decision creates gold rush: ABI Research

The decision to open up valuable new spectrum is one of the most contentious the Federal Communications Commission has ever made, the equivalent of the government opening up a previously untapped oilfield.

After an epic battle between the U.S. broadcasting industry and high-tech companies, the FCC ruled in November 2008 that it would open up the white space spectrum -- 54 MHz to 698 MHz -- once TV stations move from analog to digital transmissions and no longer need the bandwidth "guard rails" required by analog. Congress has set the date of that transition for June 2009.

"The FCC decision is going to encourage a lot of wireless startup service providers -- you'll start to see service-provider products at CES in January 2010 and by Fall 2010 you'll start to see products for the enterprise and for the home," said Stan Schatt, Carlsbad, CA-based vice president of ABI Research.

"It's not going to take much of an investment for a startup to begin broadcasting in a rural area," he said. "I suspect that by early summer, the legal battles will be resolved, because the National Association of Broadcasters didn't come up with any new argument opposing it, so it should be just delays.

"In the meantime, device manufacturers are working hard."

This white space spectrum is so valuable because, unlike most wavelengths used by wireless communications companies, the frequency is low enough that it allows signals to pass through terrain such as hills and forests, greatly increasing usable range.

"A mountain's not going to stop this," Mr. Schatt said.

An epic battle led up to this decision, according to ABI.

The broadcast industry and wireless microphone vendors were opposed, expressing concerns about possible interference from white space devices, or WSDs. To address their objections, the FCC has established several safeguards.

In the supporting camp are found device manufacturers, chip-makers, consumer electronics vendors, some politicians and hopeful service provider startups, which are likely to be the first to take advantage of this opportunity.

Service provider startups will use this spectrum to offer new services to rural communities in particular, according to ABI Research, because in sparsely-populated areas there's a lot of white space available.

If they move quickly enough, it is even possible they can take advantage of some of the $7 billion in broadband rollout funds available through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

"A database has to be put together for digital channels in a particular area, and Google is leading the efforts towards compiling a non-proprietary database of this information," Mr. Schatt said.

"Supporters of this decision are the hi-tech industry, PC manufacturers, chip manufacturers, Intel and Texas Instruments, as well as Google and Microsoft, have all been active, because all of them see this as a new market," he said.

A new ABI Research Brief, "The US White Space Spectrum Opportunity: 802.22, CogNeA, and Wi-Fi Join the Gold Rush" outlines the FCC requirements and describes the possible impact of the IEEE draft 802.22 "cognitive radio" specification.

It discusses the new CogNeA vendor group, the role of Wi-Fi, and possible implications for WiMAX vendors and specific other major stakeholders. Product and service timelines, and projections for 2010 and 2011, are also included.

There are obstacles that have to be overcome in terms of the devices themselves.

"If you've got a mobile device, a white space device, it needs a radio that is able to determine whether there is something broadcasting in the spectrum or channel it wants to go into -- it has to be smart enough to be able to check first before it starts broadcasting," Mr. Schatt said.

"Also it has to go to a database that contains local digital TV channels for a particular area so that it doesn't broadcast into a particular TV channel that's already being used," he said.

"Philips and Microsoft have devices that are in the process of development right now, and we'll probably see something from HP and Dell as well, but they must be tested by the FCC. This is all predicated on the move of TV stations to digital in June."

This white space spectrum could be a competitor to WiMax, according to ABI Research.

"There are some WiMax manufacturers that have developed a radio for the 700 spectrum, so presumably they could modify it," Mr. Schatt said.

"Long range, there's going to be competition for WiMax, and its market is really rural areas, especially in the U.S., where it doesn't make sense to put in cable and other infrastructure because of the low population density," he said.