As economic uncertainty persists, 40% of consumers are expecting less discounts from brands during the 2025 holiday shopping season, an eight-point increase from the year prior, according to recently released data from Gartner. The insight, which arrives as forecasts predict U.S. holiday sales to grow at their slowest rate since the pandemic, could help inform marketing strategies as consumers continue to seek out value.

“Consumers are expecting to pay more. They're expecting to see fewer discounts. And so as a marketer… it's really about how consumers are feeling. How can you showcase value at every touch point and in every message?,” said Brad Jashinsky, a director analyst at Gartner.

Gartner’s “2025 Holiday Advertising and Consumer Trends Marketing Must Address” report analyzes what consumers expect this season in terms of discounts, when they plan to start their holiday shopping and what their preferred platforms are for finding deals.

The holiday report is informed by three sources, including the Gartner Consumer Community, which is designed to reflect the general population. It includes responses from 367 consumers collected between Aug. 4-11. The second source is an analysis of Pathmatics data, a third-party source which collects digital advertising data. The data used includes 186 retail brands collected between October 2023 and December 2024. In addition, the question, “How is your organization adapting seasonal marketing campaigns to shifting macroeconomic factors in 2025?,” was posted on the Gartner Peer Community, a platform for enterprise leaders, in April.

Where consumers shop

In the search for a good deal, consumers are abandoning brand-specific websites for multibrand retail channels. In 2023, 61% of consumers preferred brand-specific websites. In 2025, that number has fallen to 40%. Consumers view retail websites as not only more reliable than brand websites, but also more deal friendly, according to the report.

Retailer sites and apps are also preferred not only to brand apps and sites, but also social media shopping. Fifty-eight percent of holiday shoppers plan on shopping via retail sites on a computer, compared to 30% who plan on using a brand site. Additionally, 43% of consumers plan on using a retail app while only 12% of consumers plan on using a brand app. Social media is the least popular option, with just 7% of consumers planning to use a social platform for their shopping in 2025, a 3% decline from the year prior.

“That [multibrand retail] is where consumers are turning more and more and it continues to be a top channel,” said Jashinsky. “In particular, we've seen a pretty large growth in multibrand retailer apps. So those are the top channels, and we continue to see more and more brands starting to explore selling on retail marketplaces.” 

How consumers shop

For brands looking to target consumers with deals, early activations represent a key opportunity, with 25% of holiday shoppers reported having purchased a gift during a seasonal summer sale last year, per the report. However, shoppers tend to expect deeper discounts at the peak or end of the holiday season. In 2024, the average advertised discounts jumped from 38% to 43% between September and December. First-time customer discounts dropped by 11% during the same period.

While consumers are expected to have an eye on deals this season, it’s important to not overly discount products and risk damaging profitability. Rather, marketers should focus on personalized discounting.

“Ideally, you're starting to do a lot more personalized promotions, whether it's through loyalty programs, through targeted advertising or audiences,” said Jashinsky. “So you're not having to overly discount, but you're strategically discounting.”