Dive Brief:
- A nationwide school smartphone ban would cost TikTok $1.26 billion in ad revenue if one took effect, according to an analysis by Emarketer shared with Marketing Dive. That difference would grow to $2.08 billion by 2028.
- If a ban was to occur, time spent on the short-form video app is still expected to increase by 5.1% year-over-year. However, that is 3.5 percentage points lower than the expected increase if a ban didn’t occur. Snapchat is expected to see a drop either way, but the loss increases from 9.2% to 13.9% under a ban scenario.
- The research arrives amid growing regulatory scrutiny of in-school smartphone use and teen social media use. Average time spent on Instagram by children between the ages of 12 and 17 is expected to stay at 34 minutes for the next few years. A ban would cause average time to drop to 33 minutes and fall to 32 minutes by 2028.
Dive Insight:
Most states have already passed some sort of restriction of cellphone use in classrooms, to varying degrees of success. Enforcement has proven tricky, and the full impact of these bans on marketers has yet to be determined. However, the majority, 74%, of U.S. adults support banning phones during class, per Pew Research cited by Emarketer.
Teen social media users are a key demographic for many marketers, and with 19 million users between the ages of 12 and 19, any changes in social media usage can impact the ad revenues of social media platforms, per Emarketer’s “How A Nationwide Classroom Cell Phone Ban Would Affect Social Network Use.”
Phone bans, and social media bans for teens in general, have gained traction in recent months. To date, a national ban on smartphones is not under consideration, although the regulatory environment around smartphone use and social media use is heating up quickly. The backlash against tech firms for widely held beliefs about how social media platforms have impacted young users has also swiftly gained traction. Just this week, a U.S. appeals court allowed thousands of social media addiction cases against companies such as Meta and Snap to move forward.
The concern for marketers isn’t just the drop-off in usage time during school hours. Less time on social media during the day can cause teens to spend less time on apps overall, according to Minda Smiley, an Emarketer analyst.
"The reality is that these bans are expected to reduce overall social media usage among students over time. They could also have a domino effect that further curbs their usage, as teens may become less reliant on social media as they grow more accustomed to phone-free spaces,” said Smiley in press materials.
Not all platforms would feel the impact of a ban equally. Snapchat would see the most drastic change in user behavior, largely due to teens using the app more like a messaging service than a social media network. Students routinely use it to communicate during the school day and that activity would be hard to make up elsewhere. This would equate to an estimated drop in ad revenue of 6%.
Meta, on the other hand, would see ad revenue for its apps impacted by less than 1%, amounting to a difference of $600 million.
It’s important to remember that these bans do not happen in a vacuum, per the report. They often occur alongside legislation at the national and state levels to regulate teen social media use.
